2024 Belmont Stakes predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica (2024)

Updated Jun. 8, 2024 6:05 p.m. ET

Chris Fallica FOX Sports Wagering Expert

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

The Belmont Stakes is finally upon us.

I'll be in New York again along with our FOX Sports crew for this year's race. The 156th running of the Belmont will take place at Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing renovations at the iconic Belmont Park. The post time is set for 6:41 p.m. ET, and the race will be broadcast on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

Fresh off his upset of Mystik Dan in the Preakness, Seize the Grey leads my field of picks. Regardless of who comes out on top, I think we are in for another memorable weekend.


When it comes to betting on the race, I have you covered. If you are looking for a basic primer on how to bet on horses, read here. Otherwise, let's jump into my betting card and thoughts on this Saturday's big race.

(Disclaimer: To keep it simple, I'll lead with my picks first).

My Betting Card

2024 Belmont Stakes predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica (2)

1. Seize the Grey (8-1)

He got away with an easy lead at the Preakness on an off-track at Pimlico in a field that had a few also-rans, as well as Imagination who didn’t show up at all. Credit to Jamie Torres and Seize the Grey for capitalizing on it and springing the upset, but these waters are much deeper with the presence of Sierra Leone, Resilience and Mindframe in addition to the Derby winner Mystik Dan. There will be no easy leads here and, from the inside post, he’s bound to take the worst of it if he goes. Call me skeptical, as the 12-point Beyer boost has me thinking this one is set to regress here. I will say, the horse has four lifetime wins, and they have come at 10-1, 9-1, 6-1 and 16-1, so clearly him being dismissed on the board hasn’t impacted the results.

2. Resilience (10-1)

His Beyers Speed Figures are light, but they are at least going in the right direction. He ran a very credible sixth in the Derby from post 18 and looked to be a threat, until trainer Bill Mott’s concerns of him not really wanting a 1 1/4 proved prophetic. Mott planned on skipping the 10-furlong Belmont, but the horse has trained so well that he felt the need to run him here.As I wrote prior to the Derby, adding blinkers has done wonders for this horse — he’s been more focused mentally, and it showed in the Wood Memorial. He wasn’t embarrassed at all by Sierra Leone in his first start against winners in the Risen Star and then moved forward in the Wood. If Mott sees fit to run the horse, then I am putting him on the short list of contenders that can beat Sierra Leone.

3. Mystik Dan (5-1)

He didn’t run poorly in the Preakness, he just couldn’t get to a horse on a lone, easy lead. I’m a little surprised he’s 5-1 and behind the lightly raced Mindframe on the morning line, but at the same time, I do understand the skepticism. The prevailing thought after the Derby was Sierra Leone or Forever Young were probably better horses in the race, but you still have to give Mystik Dan and Brian Hernandez credit for making their own racing luck that day. With a shorter field, with less traffic and a bit of home-field advantage, I’d expect Sierra Leone to get the better of him on Saturday. But as he has done in every graded stakes race he’s run, expect him to put in an honest effort and chance to hit the board.

4. The Wine Steward (15-1)

The New York bred was a beaten favorite in the Peter Pan, won by Antiquarian who was 6-1 that day. He’s a pretty nicely bred NY breed, as he’s by Vino Rosso out of a To Honor and Serve mare. He’ll be on or near the front here and the speed makes him dangerous, as he’s been very tough to put away in his three route races. Adding the extra furlong probably doesn’t help his chances to win, but I wouldn’t completely toss him from the trifecta, as trainer Mike Maker has had a knack for getting horses to run big in stakes races at big prices. And if Sierra Leone does win, you’ll be hoping a horse in the 15-1 range can crack the tri.

5. Antiquarian (12-1)

This is the newcomer to the Triple Crown trail that I expect to take money and be that "wise-guy" underlay bet. The Peter Pan winner plays that role often, but I’m not sure how much it matters this year with that prep coming on a different track and this race being a different distance. You can make an argument for the horse though, as he should sit a stalking trip and wasn’t disgraced in the Louisiana Derby, a race that featured Honor Marie and Tuscan Gold, and was his first try against winners. However, I’m not sure how good he really is. He can certainly hit the board, but it would take a Beyer jump of about 10 points and Sierra Leone running subpar.

6. Dornach (15-1)

I didn’t like him Derby Day and I don’t like him here. He will ensure a good pace, as he’s front-end committed. As I mentioned in my Derby preview, he just hasn’t improved from two to three, and I’m not sure that he even sticks around for a slice of the tri or super.

7. Protective (20-1)

Protective is a well deserved long shot based on his finishes against other runners in this field. But give Mike Repole credit for running the maiden here. If he can beat two horses, he takes home $20k of prize money. He was 7-1 in the Peter Pan, a race Antiquarian was 6-1, so those two weren’t viewed that differently entering the race. I’d expect Tyler Gaffalione to kind of go around the track with this one and save enough horse to try and pick off a few late. It's a 10-horse field and the all-button isn't that expensive for third place in the tri, so that's the extent of my using him.

8. Honor Marie (12-1)

This is a trendy Derby price horse that predictably didn’t do much running Derby Day. While this is a better spot in a shorter field, the fact he hasn’t been within six lengths of Sierra Leone the two times they have faced each other makes me think he won’t get the best of him on Saturday in Chad Brown’s backyard. He should get a good pace to grind into and potentially hit the board.

9. Sierra Leone (9-5)

He’s two noses short of being unbeaten — the first coming in a bias-aided loss to Dornoch in the Remsen last year and then in the Derby to Mystik Dan after a rough trip. He’s had a knack for lugging in, so there’s a change to the bit he will have for this race. He also gets a jockey switch to Flavien Prat, hinting Chad Brown wasn't too happy with the ride Tyler Gaffalione gave him in the Derby. But at the same time, maybe he could have made that equipment change for the Derby, too. Between the jockey change, equipment change, rest since the Derby, move to Saratoga, projected pace and trip, it all adds up to Sierra Leone being a very tough favorite to beat.He’s got all the signs of being the best three-year-old in the country and I expect him to show it on Saturday.

10. Mindframe (7-2)

Two magnificent, dominant wins in two starts has him as the second choice here. Is it too much too soon? A maiden win and a win in an Optional allowance certainly isn’t the same as taking on stakes winners in the Belmont. It’s clear the talent is there though, and at some point you need to find out. But as a bettor, can you really take 7-2 or so on him? He’ll likely be in front of Sierra Leone for a good bit of the race as he should be in the first flight of horses, but will he be able to hold him off? To make any money in exotics, you’ll need to bet him for second or have him win the race. If it comes back Sierra Leone over Mindframe, you’re not going to make much, if anything, so that's how I’m approaching the race.

Suggested Ways to Bet the Belmont

$20 Win-Place 9($20)
$10 Exacta Box 9-2 ($10)
$5 Exacta 9 with 4-8 ($10)
$5 Exacta 2-9 ($5)
$1 Trifecta 9 with 2-3-4-8 with all ($32)
$1 Trifecta 9 with 2-3-8 with all ($24)
$1 Trifecta 2 with 9-10 with all ($16)

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

2024 Belmont Stakes predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica (3)

Horse Racing


in this topic

Horse Racing

2024 Belmont Stakes predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica (2024)


2024 Belmont Stakes predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica? ›

Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone is the 9-5 favorite in the 2024 Belmont Stakes odds, while Mindframe is 7-2 and Mystik Dan is 5-1. There are seven more 2024 Belmont Stakes horses listed between 8-1 and 20-1, but which ones have the most value in the 2024 Belmont Stakes today?

Who is the favorite at Belmont Stakes? ›

Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone is the 9-5 favorite in the 2024 Belmont Stakes odds, while Mindframe is 7-2 and Mystik Dan is 5-1. There are seven more 2024 Belmont Stakes horses listed between 8-1 and 20-1, but which ones have the most value in the 2024 Belmont Stakes today?

What is the lineup for the Belmont Stakes this year? ›

  • 2024 Belmont Stakes post positions. Seize the Grey (8-1) Resilience (10-1) Mystik Dan (5-1) The Wine Steward (15-1) Antiquarian (12-1) Dornoch (15-1) Protective (20-1) ...
  • 2024 Belmont Stakes odds (sorted) Sierra Leone (9/5) Mindframe (7/2) Mystik Dan (5-1) Seize the Grey (8-1) Resilience (10-1) Antiquarian (12-1)
Jun 8, 2024

Who won the 1979 Belmont Stakes? ›

COASTAL WINS THE 1979 BELMONT STAKES! 12TH OVERALL TRIPLE CROWN WINNER. yards to go to the third Triple Crown in three years.

Who is the favorite in the Belmont 2024? ›

The winners of the first two Triple Crown races, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness winner Seize the Grey, are in the 10-horse Belmont field, though the favorite is the Wayne Lukas-trained horse Sierra Leone.

Who is the fastest horse in the Belmont? ›

Belmont Stakes fastest times

Secretariat — 2:24.00 (1973)

Who is the greatest racehorse of all time? ›

1. Secretariat. The top spot couldn't be any other horse than “Big Red” really. Secretariat took the 1973 Triple Crown by storm, sending records tumbling as he ended a 25-year wait for a thoroughbred to achieve this feat in the US.

Who is the fastest horse in Triple Crown history? ›

That would be horse racing legend Secretariat, who earned the three-race title in 1973 and holds the fastest combined time for each of the three races. Secretariat still holds the record for the fastest Kentucky Derby-winning time.

What is the fastest race horse of all time? ›

Spectacular Bid set the record for a mile and a quarter, with a time of 1 minute and 57.8 seconds, in 1980. A mare called Winning Brew is the current world record holder for the fastest horse. She clocked an incredible 43.97 mph during a race in 2008, breaking Guinness Louts' previous record of 43.5 mph.

Has any horse beat Secretariat's record at Belmont? ›

In the Belmont, where Secretariat authored the greatest performance in the history of the sport, no other horse has broken 2:26. Secretariat's records have provided horse racing such a popular benchmark of excellence that the tracks hosting the Triple Crown probably would like to see them stand forever.

Has any Filly won the Belmont Stakes? ›

A filly won the first-ever Belmont Stakes. Aptly named, “Ruthless” took home the winner's share of $2500 that year. Since then, only two other fillies have won the race – Tanya in 1905 and Rags to Riches in 2007.

What happened to Sham in the 1973 Belmont Stakes? ›

Entering the backstretch and approaching three-quarters of a mile, Secretariat began to distance himself as Sham began to fade, ultimately finishing last. It was later discovered that Sham had suffered a hairline fracture of his right front cannon bone during the race, which ended his racing career.

Who is predicted to win the Belmont Stakes? ›

2024 Belmont Stakes odds, futures, horses
Prg #HorseOdds
1Seize the Grey8-1
3Mystik Dan5-1
4Wine Steward15-1
6 more rows
Jun 8, 2024

Who is the favorite in the Belmont tomorrow? ›

Belmont Stakes live odds

As of 2 p.m. Saturday, with over $3.7 million in the win pool, Sierra Leone is holding as the favorite at 2-1. Seize the Grey has notably dropped from 8-1 to 4-1, while Mindframe has risen from 7-2 to 7-1.

What were the odds on secretariat at Belmont? ›

With so few horses in the race, and Secretariat expected to win, no "show" bets were taken. Secretariat was sent off as a 1–10 favorite before a crowd of 69,138, then the second largest attendance in Belmont history. The race was televised by CBS and was watched by over 15 million households, an audience share of 52%.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Merrill Bechtelar CPA

Last Updated:

Views: 5965

Rating: 5 / 5 (50 voted)

Reviews: 81% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Merrill Bechtelar CPA

Birthday: 1996-05-19

Address: Apt. 114 873 White Lodge, Libbyfurt, CA 93006

Phone: +5983010455207

Job: Legacy Representative

Hobby: Blacksmithing, Urban exploration, Sudoku, Slacklining, Creative writing, Community, Letterboxing

Introduction: My name is Merrill Bechtelar CPA, I am a clean, agreeable, glorious, magnificent, witty, enchanting, comfortable person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.